Keywords
EU-MERCOSUR Agreement
Portugal
Latin america
Theories of international relations
How to Cite
Abstract
Our research analyses the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement through the lens of neorealism, based on the survival of the state in an anarchic international system. Concluded in principle in December 2024 and proposed for signature in September 2025, the agreement is interpreted as a strategic mechanism for Portugal to maximize strategic interests, diversify trade partnerships, and counterbalance the growing influence of great powers, such as the US and China, in the Latin American region. We conclude that, for Portugal, the agreement not only seeks economic gains but also reinforces its geopolitical position as a peripheral actor in the EU with the expectation of asymmetric benefits in sectors such as agrifood and services, although the existence of environmental risks and European pressures pose challenges to Portuguese national interests.
References
Accioly, E. (2013). Duas décadas de MERCOSUL: Valeu a pena?. Lusíada. Política Internacional E Segurança, (5), 125–140. https://revistas.lis.ulusiada.pt/index.php/lpis/article/view/169
Araujo, F. L. (2024). NEOCLASSICAL REALISM AND STUDIES ON FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS. Journal of Global Politics and Current Diplomacy, 12 (2), 5–23. https://journal.centruldedic.ro/archives/2024-2/no-12-issue-2/de-araujo/
Brown, C. & Ainley, K. (2012). Compreender as Relações Internacionais. Lisboa: Gradiva.
Burwell, F., Sader, V., & Fleck, J. (2026, 9 de janeiro). The EU and Mercosur are creating one of the world’s largest free trade areas. What’s next? Atlantic Council Dispatches. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/eu-and-mercosur-are-creating-one-ofthe-worlds-largest-free-trade-areas/
Casa Iberia. (2025, 12 de fevereiro). Portugal and Mercosur: A new era of economic opportunities. Noticias. https://www.casaiberia.com/en/noticias/show/portugaland-mercosur-a-new-era-of-economic-opportunities_1910/
Comissão Europeia. (2007). MERCOSUL – Documento de Estratégia Regional: 2006–2013. https://eeas. europa.eu/mercosur/rsp/07_13_en.pdf.
Comissão Europeia. (2025). EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement. https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/mercosur/eu-mercosur-agreement_en
Dougherty, J. E. & Pfaltzgraff Jr., R. L. (2011). Relações Internacionais – As Teorias em confronto. Lisboa: Gradiva.
EURACTIV. (2025). Portugal posts record €9.3bn external surplus in 2024. https://www.euractiv.com/news/portugal-posts-record-e9-3bn-external-surplus-in-2024/
EURACTIV. (2025, 7 de janeiro). Portugal aims to seal EU-Mercosur trade agreement, progress on other deals. Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/news/eu-chair-portugalaims-to-seal-mercosur-trade-deal/
Euronews. (2025). European Commission puts prepped Mercosur deal on ice. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/08/european-commission-puts-preppedmercosur-deal-on-ice
European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade and Economic Security. (n.d.).
EU-Mercosur – a boost for jobs and exports in Portugal. EU-Mercosur trade in your town. https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/mercosur/eu-mercosur-trade-your-town/portugal-mercosurtrade-
your-town_en
European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade and Economic Security. (n.d.).
EU-Mercosur agreement. https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationshipscountry-and-region/countries-and-regions/mercosur/eu-mercosur-agreement_en
Feás, E., Malamud, C., Steinberg, F., & Talvi, E. (2024, 17 de dezembro). Twenty-five years later, white smoke for the EU-MERCOSUR Agreement. Analyses. Real Instituto Elcano. https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/twenty-five-years-laterwhite-smoke-for-the-eu-mercosur-agreement/
Ferreira-Pereira, L. C. (2015). The European Union’s partnership policy towards Brazil: more than meets the eye. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 29(1), 55–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2015.1103973
Fortuna, G. (2026, 7 de janeiro). Mercosur deal collides with ‘Donroe Doctrine’. Brussels
Playbook. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/mercosur-deal-collides-with-donroe-doctrine/
Gabinete de Planeamento, Políticas e Administração Geral. (2025). UE-Mercosul | Acordo Comercial. https://www.gpp.pt/index.php/noticias/ue-mercosul-acordo-comercial
Gillespie, B. (28 de julho de 2025). Who Are Portugal’s Biggest Trading Partners? Portugal.com. https://www.portugal.com/business/who-are-portugals-biggest-trading-partners/
Governo de Portugal. (2023). Economia portuguesa deverá crescer o dobro da Zona Euro. https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc23/comunicacao/noticia?i=economia-portuguesadevera-crescer-o-dobro-da-zona-euro
Krasner, S. D. (1985). Structural Conflict: The Third World Against Global Liberalism.
Berkeley: University of California Press.
Malamud, A. (2012). La Unión Europea, del interregionalismo con América Latina a la asociación estratégica con Brasil / The European Union, from Latin America’s interregionalism to Brazil’s “strategic partnership.” Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals, 97/98, 219–230. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41635280
Ministério das Relações Exteriores. (2016). Acordo de Cooperação Interinstitucional entre a Comunidade Européia e o Mercado Comum do Sul. http://dai-mre.serpro.gov.br/atos-internacionais/multilaterais/acordo-de-cooperacao-interinstitucional-entre-acomunidade-europeia-e-omercado-comum-do-sul-mercosul/
Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços. (2025). Acordo Mercosul-UE aumenta benefícios para Brasil e Portugal. https://www.gov.br/mdic/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/2025/fevereiro/acordo-mercosul-ue-aumenta-beneficios-para-brasil-eportugal-
disse-alckmin
Moreira, A. (2013). Memórias do Outono Ocidental — Um Século sem Bússola. Almedina: Coimbra.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1948). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Knopf.
Parlamento Europeu. (2025). International Agreements in Progress — EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement: Trade pillar. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2025)769537
Portugal Global. (2025, 11 de fevereiro). Exportações portuguesas de bens cresceram 2,5% em 2024. https://www.portugalglobal.pt/noticias/2025/fevereiro/exportacoesportuguesas-de-bens-cresceram-2-5-em-2024
Portugal News. (2024). Can Portugal Be the Gateway to Unlock EU-Mercosur Trade?. https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2024-12-13/can-portugal-be-the-gatewayto-unlock-eu-mercosur-trade/94245
Prado, I. D., Lopes Tavares, J. A. de M. V., Oliveira Pontes, J. N. M. de, Barbosa, J. P. R.,
Dias, J. P. P. F., & Santos, S. S. dos. (2017). As relações União Europeia – Mercado Comum do Sul. Lusíada. Política Internacional E Segurança, (13–14), 39–68. Obtido de https://revistas.lis.ulusiada.pt/index.php/lpis/article/view/2433
Público. (2024, December 9). Governo quer baixar défice comercial com acordo UE-Mercosul.
Rangel. (2021). Acordo Mercosul — União Europeia: Benefícios para as Empresas Portuguesas. https://www.rangel.com/pt/blog/acordo-mercosul-uniao-europeia-beneficios-paraempresas-portuguesas/
Representação da UE em Portugal. (2024). UE e Mercosul celebram acordo de parceria inovador. https://portugal.representation.ec.europa.eu/news/ue-e-mercosul-celebramacordo-de-parceria-inovador-2024-12-06_pt
República Portuguesa. (2023). Trade relations between Portugal and Brazil have “room to grow”. https://www.portugal.gov.pt/en/gc23/communication/news-item?i=traderelations-between-portugal-and-brazil-have-room-to-grow
Reuters. (2025). The EU-Mercosur trade deal: what’s in it and why is it contentious? https://www.reuters.com/business/whats-eu-mercosur-deal-why-is-itcontentious-2025-09-03/
Sá Pinto, M. (2008). Os interesses de Portugal no contexto das relações União Europeia-Mercosul. Cadernos de Estudos Latinos-Americanos, 4, pp. 111–129.
Sanahuja, J. A. (2022). Assessing the political dialogue and cooperation pillar of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement: Towards a bi-regional strategic partnership? (EXPO_IDA (2022)653652). Directorate-General for External Policies, Policy Department, European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2022/653652/EXPO_IDA(2022)653652_EN.pdf
Santander Research. (2025). The EU–Mercosur agreement: A strategic alliance for the 21st century [Relatório]. The Year Ahead 2025. Banco Santander. https://www.santander.com/content/dam/santander-com/es/contenido-paginas/sala-de-comunicacion/the-year-ahead-2025/what-could-the-eu-mercosur.pdf
Saraiva, M. G., (2004). A União Europeia como Ator Internacional e os Países do MERCOSUL. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 47 (1), 84–111. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292004000100005
Scholvin, S. & Malamud, A. (2020). Is Brazil a Geoeconomic Node? Geography, Public Policy, and the Failure of Economic Integration in South America. Bras. Political Sci. Rev. 14 (2). https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3821202000020004
Severiano Teixeira, N. (2011). Portugal. Política Externa-As Relações Internacionais em Mudança. Coimbra: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 278–286.
Steinberg, F. (2024, 6 de dezembro). What are the implications of the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement? Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-are-implications-eu-mercosur-free-trade-agreement
Trade and Trail. (n.d.). Acuerdo UE-Mercosur: Geoestrategia y oportunidades. https://tradeandtrail.net/en/acuerdo-ue-mercosur-geoestrategia-y-oportunidades/
Vasconcelos, G. (2026, 18 de janeiro). Acordo UE-Mercosul eliminará tarifas entre Brasil e União Europeia e aplicará regras especiais a produtos. Valor Econômico. https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2026/01/18/acordo-ue-mercosul-eliminara-tarifasentre-
brasil-e-uniao-europeia-e-aplicara-regras-especiais-a-produtos.ghtml
Verhelst, K. (2026, 9 de janeiro). EU countries approve Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks. POLíTICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-approve-mercosurtrade-deal-for-signature/
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural Realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5–41. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2626772
Werner, A., Estevadeordal, A., & Talvi, E. (2023, August). Acuerdo UE-Mercosur: Una oportunidad estratégica de primer orden para la Unión Europea y América Latina. Real Instituto Elcano. https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/acuerdo-ue-mercosur-una-oportunidad-estrategica-de-primer-orden-para-la-unioneuropea-y-america-latina-real-instituto-elcano.pdf
XXIV Governo Constitucional (2025, 30 de janeiro). Economia cresce 1,9% em 2024, acima da estimativa do Governo. https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc24/comunicacao/noticia?i=economia-cresce-19-em-2024-acima-da-estimativa-do-governo-
Yin, Robert K. (2014). Case Study Research: Design and Methods. 5.ª ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2026 Political Observer | Revista Portuguesa de Ciência Política (Portuguese Journal of Political Science)